Polymarket BTC/ETH Arbitrage Bot

Summary
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https://polymarket.com/@SilverKestrel

This bot should be silent.

Developing a production-grade, silent Polymarket arbitrage bot designed to monitor BTC and ETH 15-minute Up/Down markets. The system will integrate Polymarket CLOB with CEX price feeds, include realistic simulation, strict risk controls, and support a safe transition from paper trading to live micro-execution. The solution will be deployed on a VPS with full documentation and a 30 days of free post-launch support after completion.

Milestone 1: Infrastructure Setup

This phase focuses on setting up the core infrastructure for the arbitrage bot. It includes VPS environment preparation, secure runtime configuration, structured logging foundation, configuration management, and base project scaffolding. The system will be prepared for headless execution with auto-restart, security hardening, and performance-ready architecture.

Milestone 2: Strategy & Data Validation

This milestone validates all market data inputs and strategy assumptions. It includes integrating and validating Polymarket CLOB market data and Binance price feeds, aligning timestamps and 15-minute candles, verifying market selection logic, and confirming probability-to-price mappings. This ensures clean, reliable inputs before execution logic is built.

Milestone 3: Development Phase 1

This phase implements the core arbitrage logic. It includes real-time BTC/ETH 15-minute market monitoring, arbitrage detection between CEX pricing and Polymarket probabilities, market filtering based on liquidity and spreads, and a full paper-trading simulation layer handling partial fills, queue priority, fee impact.


Milestone 4: Development Phase 2

This phase focuses on execution safety and live readiness. It includes implementing the full risk engine (position limits, drawdown caps, volatility circuit breakers, stale feed protection), live micro-execution mode with safeguards, manual and automatic kill switches, and configurable behavior via external configuration files.


Milestone 5: Finalization, Testing, Deployment

This final phase includes end-to-end testing under real market conditions, deployment to the VPS with systemd auto-restart, creation of full operational documentation, and validation of silent operation. It also includes final optimizations and handover, plus a 30-day free post-launch support period to ensure a smooth and stable transition. Show More